Non-CO2 Emission Reduction Pathways for Madhya Pradesh: A Multi-Sectoral Assessment

Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) and other non-CO₂ air pollutants play a significant role in driving near-term climate change and worsening air quality, with direct implications for public health, agriculture, and ecosystems. While carbon dioxide remains the principal focus of long-term climate mitigation efforts, pollutants such as methane, black carbon, hydrofluorocarbons, and tropospheric ozone offer important opportunities for achieving faster climate benefits through targeted emission reductions. Recognizing the need for integrated action on climate and air pollution, this project was undertaken to establish a comprehensive data driven base for Madhya Pradesh, enabling informed policy decisions and supporting the state's transition towards cleaner air, enhanced climate resilience, and sustainable development.

This project presents Madhya Pradesh's first comprehensive assessment of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) and other non-CO₂ air pollutants, establishing a 2019 baseline and providing a detailed understanding of emissions across the state. While long-term climate action has traditionally focused on carbon dioxide (CO₂), reducing non-CO₂ pollutants such as methane (CH₄), black carbon (BC), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and tropospheric ozone (O₃) offers significant opportunities to address near-term climate impacts while delivering immediate air quality and public health benefits.

The study develops a robust, sector-wise emissions inventory using a bottom-up, activity-based methodology, covering major emission sources across Madhya Pradesh. To complement this analysis, the project also incorporates satellite-based remote sensing assessments, providing an independent evaluation of the state's pollution burden and revealing the spatial distribution of atmospheric pollutants across districts. Together, these approaches offer a comprehensive picture of emissions, their sources, and their geographic concentration, enabling evidence-based decision-making.

Building on the baseline assessment, the project examines future emission trajectories through 2047 under a Business-as-Usual (BAU) pathway and evaluates a range of alternative policy scenarios across key sectors. This scenario-based analysis identifies practical and cost-effective interventions that can substantially reduce emissions of SLCPs and other non-CO₂ pollutants while supporting the state's development objectives. The findings highlight priority sectors for action and demonstrate how integrated air quality and climate strategies can generate multiple environmental, social, and economic benefits.

Madhya Pradesh provides an important example of state-level action on climate and air pollution. The state has undertaken several proactive initiatives aligned with national climate and environmental priorities and has emerged as a leader in addressing emissions from the waste sector. As climate risks, air pollution challenges, and weather variability continue to increase, targeted action on SLCPs offers an opportunity to strengthen climate resilience and improve environmental outcomes in the short and medium term.

A key finding of the project is that emissions and pollution burdens are not uniformly distributed across the state. The analysis indicates that pollution is concentrated in specific sectors and geographic areas, underscoring the importance of targeted, district-level interventions rather than a one-size-fits-all approach. By identifying emission hotspots and evaluating the effectiveness of alternative policy pathways, the study provides a clear foundation for integrating climate mitigation and air quality management at the state level.

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The project establishes a scientifically robust baseline for non-CO₂ pollutants in Madhya Pradesh and offers a pathway for achieving meaningful emission reductions through sector-specific policy actions. Its findings are intended to support policymakers, practitioners, researchers, and other stakeholders in designing effective strategies that contribute to cleaner air, improved public health, enhanced climate resilience, and sustainable development