Study on Comparative Assessment of Vehicular Fuels in India’s Energy Transition

India’s road transport sector is undergoing a significant transition, with electrification, natural gas, conventional fuels and emerging low-carbon technologies expected to coexist across different vehicle applications. However, the suitability of a fuel or technology varies considerably across vehicle segments and depends on factors such as vehicle characteristics, utilisation patterns, infrastructure availability, ownership economics, environmental performance, technology maturity and the stage of transition. In light of these factors, TERI conducted a study on “Comparative Assessment of Vehicular Fuels and Technology Pathways in India,” evaluating the relative suitability of major vehicular fuel and technology options across different vehicle segments and time horizons. The assessment covered petrol, diesel, CNG, EV and LNG across six major vehicle categories: two-wheelers, three-wheelers, private four-wheelers, commercial four-wheelers, light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs).

The study assessed these alternatives for the current situation and the 2030, 2040 and 2050 horizons, bringing together technical, environmental, economic, social and geopolitical considerations to identify technology pathways suited to different vehicle applications by applying a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework using the TOPSIS methodology. The resulting Closeness Index indicated the relative proximity of each technology to an ideal solution for a particular vehicle segment and time horizon.

The central finding of this study is that India should not propose one universal fuel choice as the single winner for replacing all the existing mobility choices; rather, it requires a phased transition in which different technologies perform different roles across vehicle fleets, applications, and stages of transition. The analysis shows that no fuel choice consistently scores highest across all dimensions under the MCDA analysis.