Reassessment of Solar Potential in India: A Macro-level Study
India’s Nationally Determined Contributions were updated in August 2022, setting the target of reduction of emission intensity by 45% by 2030, over the 2005 level, and achieving about 50% cumulative installed capacity from non-fossil-based energy resources by 2030, and reaching net-zero by 2070.
Achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 will require a huge expansion of non-fossil energy sources, with solar energy playing the major role. TERI’s study estimates that the electricity demand will exceed 5,000 TWh by 20501. Furthermore, TERI’s discussion paper India’s Journey to Net Zero: A Conceptual Framework for Analysis, projects that India’s electricity consumption could grow 5–6 times, eventually peaking at levels comparable to the present levels of consumption in the European Union (EU) – equivalent to a per capita consumption of 6,687 kWh or a total consumption of approximately 9,362 TWh. Beyond this point, electricity consumption is expected to plateau.
It is well recognised now that solar power will form a major share of the clean energy mix in the country. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Government of India in 2014, estimated India’s solar potential at 748 GW, on the basis of considering 3% of wastelands for calculating solar potential. However, considering the growing demand, the advent of new solar applications, and the limitation posed by the assessed potential, there is a need to revisit the assumption forming the basis of the potential estimation.
TERI’s study, Reassessment of Solar Potential in India: A Macro-level Study, revisits the solar potential of conventional areas like barren & unculturable lands and explores additional avenues to increase the country’s solar potential estimates. Based on literature review and macro analysis through various assumptions made by the authors, the study re-evaluates the country’s solar potential. The categories considered and their estimated solar potential, based on the norm of 3 Acres per MW for ground mounted solar PV on barren & unculturable and floating solar PV.