Opinion

Science of climate risks

16 Feb 2010 |

Dr R K Pachauri

| The Asian Age

The recent news about the decision on Bt brinjal has received a great deal of attention from the public and the media. Issues involving radical change often invoke radical reactions. That the use of genetically modified (GM) foods is a major departure from long-standing practice and belief is clearly a reason for the very diverse views being expressed by different sections of society. It is also a fact that major technological changes of this kind would need to be tested against a number of unknown and unseen impacts that could emerge only over a long period of time and with safeguards being fully established.

Scientific innovation and scientists today are accountable to society at a level that has not been seen before. It is also true that scientific innovation now invites deep concerns and suspicions that have not been seen in the past. Much of this, of course, is the result of unfortunate experiences that societies have had in the past, such as those that were brought to light by Rachel Carson, eloquently exposed in her book The Silent Spring. Indeed, Carson\'s work laid the foundation of widespread global concern on environmental damage caused by increasing use of chemicals of various kinds in our daily lives.

But in her lifetime Rachel Carson faced enormous resistance and dangers, because those responsible for the production of the chemicals and products that she had exposed clearly saw her as a major obstacle to continuing profits from business as usual in the future. But that resistance turned out to be short-lived because society in the developed countries, in particular, realised some of the perils associated with growing use of chemicals and other products which had very high potential for environmental damage and adverse effects on human health. Yet, today we know that with the population of this planet approaching seven billion people, and with incomes reaching higher levels, the adoption of lifestyles and consumption all across the globe are often a replica of what the developed countries did historically in the past. If we continue on present trends, the dangers of blindly emulating the developed nations would leave us with very few options to bring about timely change. If change is to be brought about, and we are to restore the balance and move human society towards a distinctly sustainable pattern of development, then some "disruptive" technologies would become essential and desirable.

Large-scale solar energy use would come from such disruptive technologies. How can scientists cope with the challenge of innovation that would bring into place radically different technologies from those employed today and yet be able to ensure acceptance from the point of view of human health, economic well-being and environmental protection? This would require a great deal of coordination between research organisations, industry as well as government. What would also be essential is a broad policy-driven approach to scientific innovation because, almost at the stage of conceptualising new technological innovation, its implications for society across the board would need to be understood with some degree of thoroughness. The elimination of risk would have to be an important part of technological innovation throughout the process by which it is produced.

While change may bring risks of a certain kind, society also has to look at the risks associated with no change. For instance, this is truly the case with human-induced climate change. The scientific community and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have provided overwhelming evidence of the manner in which human actions are affecting the earth\'s climate and a detailed account of the impacts that would be felt if nothing is done to alter the current system and to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Business-asusual, in this case, would create risks, the probability of which in several instances have been estimated as significant.

Yet there is an inertia in the system which seems to be preventing the induction of technologies and processes that could make a difference in the right direction. Even in the case of, say, transportation technology, there are countries in the world which have advanced significantly while others are lagging behind, largely because of differences in the policy framework which in one case promote energy efficiency and low-emissions solutions while in the other there is an inert continuation of systems that have been largely responsible for the problem in the first place. The question is often asked whether anyone who has a rational basis for behaviour and action would ever get on a flight which has even a five per cent chance of a crash? In the case of mitigating the emissions of GHGs and thereby tackling the growing problem of climate change, several sectors of society are hesitant to take action even when the likelihood of adverse impacts are very much higher than five to 10 per cent. There is something disproportionate in the way that people perceive risk. For instance, continuation of practices that might result in risk appear to be discounted heavily as against those that might require change.

The biggest challenge in bringing about change within a democratic system lies in sensitising the public on choices that are explicitly to be exercised.

Unfortunately, there is a gap between the work of scientists and the public at large, which despite an increase in the speed of information flows has not been bridged. Often, therefore, misinformation or extreme shades of information fill in the existing gap. Rationality as a result becomes a casualty. In the absence of proper information we could have situations where the undesirable impacts of technological innovation would surface well after the decision has been made.

The same thing to a much larger degree would happen in the event of indecision which may be the result of political, attitudinal or other forms of inertia. In the case of climate change this clearly is the issue that the public must understand.

A delay in taking steps that would lead to higher levels of energy security, lower levels of air pollution and in general a sustainable energy future need to be taken with a sense of urgency. These, incidentally, would also stabilise the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere.

India's energy price challenge

09 Feb 2010 |

Dr Leena Srivastava

| Financial Chronicle

The report of the expert group on pricing of petroleum products released a few days ago has made some extremely bold recommendations particularly in terms of increasing prices of LPG and kerosene and they need to be lauded for it. As pointed out by the committee, the benefits of subsidies on these petroleum products by and large do not reach the targeted populations at all. On the other hand, adulteration of diesel with kerosene has resulted in a significant worsening in urban air pollution apart from the huge financial losses on this kind of consumption.

S L Rao: Behind the attacks on Pachauri

04 Feb 2010 |

Prof S L Rao

| Business Standard

The anti-climate change lobby is using the flaw in the IPCC study to condemn not just the Teri chief but the idea of climate change itself.

For the first time, Indians are experiencing an organised, systematic and vicious attack by powerful and well-funded lobbies in the developed world. These lobbies are aiming to diminish the perception of the impact of global warming and climate change on our common future, and the consequent need to change our lifestyle. Such lifestyle changes will damage the future of many industries, so there are vast resources and stakes in continuing present consumption styles.

Challenge of climate change, post-Copenhagen

01 Feb 2010 |

Dr R K Pachauri

| The Hindu

Are the world and human society in general ready and willing to take action on critical issues that require a major change in the manner in which we produce and consume goods and services?

The science of climate change is now well established. This is the result of painstaking work of over two decades carried out by thousands of scientists drawn from across the globe to assess every aspect of climate change for the benefit of humanity. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was produced in the year 2007, and highlighted, on the basis of careful observations extending over a long period of time, that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.” It was also stated clearly that most of the “observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent (except Antarctica).”

Understanding the climate row

26 Jan 2010 |

Dr Leena Srivastava

| Financial Chronicle

A lot has been said in the media recently, and on unaccountable blogs, about the error in the IPCC report on the melting of the Himalayan glaciers. The IPCC has put forward a statement to \"regret the poor application of well established procedures in this instance\" and have assured the world of their \"commitment\" to ensuring the level of performance required in the future. As a coordinating lead author in the Third Assessment Report, I can affirm that the IPCC’s processes and guidelines are very carefully drafted and followed. Beyond this, the element of \'human error\' always remains. Even the ministry of environment and forests in its State of Environment Report 2009 has said that the \"… Himalayan glaciers could disappear within 50 years because of climate change….\" The IPCC has an opportunity to update its statements on this issue as well as reflect new knowledge that has emerged, and will continue to do so, in its Fifth Assessment Report.

Gentle winds of change

19 Jan 2010 |

Dr R K Pachauri

| The Asian Age

Today is January 19, exactly a month since the conclusion of the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held in Copenhagen. Beginning with the 13th COP, which was held in Bali in 2007, expectations had been raised that by the time the Copenhagen meeting was to take place, the world would have a firm and binding agreement on climate change — one that would effectively meet the global challenge being faced today — as it is an issue that will certainly get much more serious in the future.

However, with the slow pace of negotiations and the prospects of a binding agreement becoming increasingly elusive, this outcome seemed very distant a few months before Copenhagen.

Firm up energy ties with B’desh

12 Jan 2010 |

Dr Leena Srivastava

| Financial Chronicle

India rolled out the red carpet for the prime minister of Bangladesh and prime minister Manmohan Singh was, rightly, lavish both in his praise and promise of opportunities for cooperation between the two countries. Undoubtedly, Bangladesh is a less developed country than India, with a per capita income that is just 60 per cent that of India’s relatively low figure and a ranking of 137 on the human development index compared with India’s marginally better 126.

However, apart from a shared history and culture, Bangladesh is key to India’s ability to access its own resources in the north-eastern states of India as well as those beyond in Myanmar. The fact that India lost out to China in developing and accessing Myanmar’s hydrocarbon resources was well covered by the media. Myanmar also has large hydropower resources of nearly 40,000 mw of which less than 1,000 mw has been developed.

Sustainability, an academic model

01 Jan 2010 |

Dr R K Pachauri

| Higher Education, The Times of India

CAPITALISM AND THE role of private enterprises are being questioned worldwide following the current economic slowdown. There is widespread consensus that a lack of effective regulation in the private sector coupled with unethical decisions taken by corporate leaders has triggered the economic downturn. Consequently, today the necessity of sustainable business models is being acutely felt. In consonance with this need, higher education is actively trying to accommodate these models.

NEED OF THE HOUR Sustainability should become the guiding principle of businesses. We can no longer undermine its value by comprehending it as an abstraction that merely harbours theoretical concern. Sustainability is rapidly becoming an internationally acknowledged framework for economic welfare and application of social sciences.

With regards to climate change, the fourth assessment report of the [PCC has proved scientifically that warming of the planet is unequivocal and most of the warming that took place in the last 50 years was due to human action. So it is important to \'understand\' the source of these actions. By \'understanding: I mean an analytical understanding of human behaviour, actions and acquired instincts. Social sciences should gradually adopt a sustainable approach towards \'learning\' the dynamics of society and face the challenge of \'educating\' thoughtless human reflexes through the curriculum.

UNDERSTANDING WISE A sustainable educational format is likely to be the fulcrum that will finally hold a range of disciplines together. To understand the dynamics of sustainability, it is important to understand that irresponsible energy consumption is leading the world towards geopolitical risks and supply constraints. Besides, conventional fossil sources of energy generate carbon emissions that has a detrimental impact on the climate. Therefore, for a sustainable future, it is important for mankind to switch to clean and renewable sources of energy.

Considering this backdrop, renewable energy studies and applications merit widespread attention. It is important that students are trained in the theoretical and practical aspects of renewable energy and energy management. Programmes in this domain should be structured to enable students to tackle practical problems of design. Moreover, they should be equipped to develop industrial applications and conduct academic research. Courses should go beyond imparting knowledge not only in renewable energy technology and implementation but also in synergetic sectors of energy decision-making such as energy economics and energy conversion technologies.

Integrated energy policy in a limbo

29 Dec 2009 |

Dr Leena Srivastava

| Financial Chronicle

In the last week of December 2008, the Union cabinet approved the salient features of an integrated energy policy for India put up by the planning commission on the basis of a report prepared by an expert committee constituted for the purpose. The draft policy contained several rational and oft-demanded features, including the encouragement of competitive behaviour, the provision of a level playing field between the private and public sectors, transparent and targeted subsidies, a focus on energy efficiency and demand management, promotion of renewable energy through production-linked incentives and a major focus on biomass-based energy.

India and China are the most decisive factors

16 Dec 2009 |

Mr Sakarama Somayaji

| The Financial Express

‘Climate change’ is the buzz word today. According to reports of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is enough scientific evidence to prove that the matter is serious and needs immediate global action. As the Copenhagen Conference has started, every international leader is keen to be in the centre of the talks on climate change. However, one thing remains unclear—who will do what and by when, to save the planet from global warming.

India and China are the most decisive countries, not only because of their size and hence the capacity to contribute to the climate change, but also because of their current growth rate. In the next two decades, these two developing giants are supposed to reach a stage where other developed countries stand today. The large investments flowing into these countries carry huge social and human costs. Projects often involve involuntary resettlement, mostly of poorer groups, with its potentially impoverishing impacts. In the fast-track race for development being currently pursued, it is critical that the interests of people displaced in the process are adequately protected. Development-induced displacement, resettlement and rehabilitation will be a major challenge for both the nations in pursuing their developmental goals.