Simulating the Effects of Earth Cooling Approaches on the Dynamics and Thermodynamics of Monsoon and Precipitation Extremes

Global warming is significantly altering precipitation patterns, making wet regions wetter and increasing aridity in dry areas. This research project investigates the impacts of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) specifically Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) on monsoon systems. By utilizing high-resolution climate models, we aim to provide a detailed understanding of how cooling the planet might modulate the fundamental physical drivers of extreme weather.

Core Objectives

Comprehensive Assessment: Evaluate how earth cooling strategies impact monsoon and precipitation extremes across India and the UK.

Physical Drivers: Elucidate changes in atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamics, and evaporation processes caused by climate interventions.

Termination Analysis: Investigate the "termination effect," where climatic conditions may abruptly revert if interventions are stopped.

Seasonality Tracking: Analyze potential shifts in the timing, peak, and duration of rainy seasons under different cooling scenarios.

Research Methodology

Our team leverages moisture budget decomposition to separate precipitation changes into three distinct components:

• Dynamic Component: Vertical moisture ascent and low-level convergence.
• Thermodynamic Component: Atmospheric moisture-holding capacity.
• Nonlinear Component: Complex physical interactions within the climate system.

We utilize data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) to compare historical warming trends against various SRM implementation strategies.

Expected Outcomes

Evidence-Based Policy: Providing critical scientific evidence to guide responsible climate debate and decision-making.

Refined Frameworks: Developing new theoretical models for understanding the hydrological cycle under intervention.

Optimized Strategies: Identifying intervention methods that maximize cooling benefits while minimizing disruption to regional water cycles.

Project Partners & Team

Funding Agency: Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA), UK.

Principal Investigator: Dr Byju Pookkandy.

Co-Principal Investigator: Mr K Venkatramana

Team: Ms Suruchi Bhadwal; Dr Manish Kumar Shrivastava