A Humanitarian Approach to Tackling Climate Change

On the 24th of September a major event took place in the UN with about 80 heads of states and heads of government meeting at the invitation of Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to discuss the subject of climate change. In his opening address the Secretary General said, “Climate change is a serious threat to development everywhere. Indeed, the adverse impacts of climate change could undo much of the investments made to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).” The former Secretary General Mr. Kofi Annan had brought about a remarkable consensus among world leaders to establish the MDGs, and for the world to meet these by the year 2015. It is now clear that climate change threatens the achievement of these goals, so vital to the well-being of human society and the elimination of widespread poverty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has brought out three Working Group Reports this year which provide a comprehensive assessment of the extent and nature of climate change, the seriousness of impacts in various parts of the world and measures for mitigation of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) which account for this problem. The final part of IPCC’s Fourth Assessment (AR4), the Synthesis Report, is due to be released by mid-November 2007 to provide a comprehensive policy relevant framework. Why is global action urgent and necessary to meet the challenge of climate change? Firstly, the IPCC has determined that warming of the climate is unequivocal. Further, that average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50 year period in the last 500 years and likely the highest in at least the past 1300 years. The IPCC has also determined that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid 20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. But climate change is not taking place in a smooth, linear fashion. For instance, the frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas and so also the duration and intensity of droughts, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. Significantly, a decline in precipitation has been observed in the Mediterranean and South Africa and parts of South Asia. In general, climate change is likely to add to several stresses that already exist in the poorest regions of the world, and adversely affect the ability of societies in these regions to pursue sustainable livelihoods. By 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase in water stress due to climate change in Africa. If coupled with increased demand this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water related problems, which are already quite serious in parts of that continent. Another sector which is likely to be affected adversely in some of the poorest regions of the world is agriculture. It has been assessed that agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions would be severely compromised by climate variability and change. The area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi- arid and arid areas are expected to decrease. This would have a further adverse effect on food security and exacerbate malnutrition in the continent. In some countries yields from rainfed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 percent by 2020. Another serious impact of climate change is the melting of glaciers all over the world, and this has serious implications for South Asia and parts of China. Essentially, glacial melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and rock avalanches from destabilized slopes and would also affect water resources downstream within the next two to three decades, due to decreased river flow as the glaciers recede. In general, water availability is projected to be affected in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia. Given the fact that population growth and increasing demand resulting from higher standards of living would require larger quantities of water, the impact of climate change could adversely affect more than a billion people in respect of water availability in Asia by the 2050s. Climate change and its impacts in the most vulnerable regions of the world requires a careful evaluation of humanitarian assistance across the globe. In essence, resources would be required on an increased scale for adaptation to climate change. This undoubtedly would be a far better approach for the global community to pursue than to provide emergency assistance in the event of catastrophes and extreme events that are likely to increase in the future. There are equity dimensions of climate change that should also deserve attention. While adaptation is inevitable and urgent, the increase in emissions of GHGs if not mitigated by the developed nations will lead to much higher temperatures and much more serious impacts. It is, therefore, essential to ensure that strategies involving both adaptation and mitigation are pursued effectively. Fortunately, the cost of mitigation as assessed by the IPCC is very modest in relation to the cost of impacts across the world. If mitigation is not implemented, then income and wealth disparities between nations would increase, and the existence of poverty on a large scale, which should be ethically unacceptable, could pose a threat to global security and stability. The possibility of large numbers of people in different parts of the world becoming environmental refugees is not only a humanitarian problem of serious proportions but also has the potential for social disruption that needs to be avoided. Overall, therefore, while mitigation at a stringent level needs to be taken in hand immediately, for which existing technologies and methods are already available, the imperatives of adaptation to climate change particularly involving the poorest communities in the world, assume urgency. In view of the new knowledge provided by the IPCC, the world needs to take climate change as a serious problem that needs a humanitarian approach.