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3.8.1 Economic Benefit Analysis in the ILC Scenario 2.3
On the basis of BAU, we assume that the no-load ratio of all vehicles
can be lowered from the present 50 per cent to 20 per cent in the ILC
scenario. Thus, the total quantity of freight vehicles in 2015 will be
62,616 (refer to Table 3.2), which is 26,835 less than the 89,451 in the
BAU scenario. Due to the lower increase of the quantity, the total fuel
consumption of freight vehicles in the ILC scenario will be less than
that in the BAU scenario, which will bring along substantial economic
benefit to the freight transport system of Guiyang in 2015. The benefit
can be calculated as follows:
TM= S × L (3.2)
=O (TM × Q) / 100 (3.3)
C o= O × Po (3.4)
If we use Eqs (3.2)–(3.4) to calculate the cost for fuel consumption in the
BAU scenario and the ILC scenario, the results are RMB 3,095 million
and RMB 2,255 million. Finding the difference between these values,
we get RMB 840 million which will be saved in the ILC scenario than
in the BAU scenario in 2015. Refer to Appendix D, Table D.1 for details.
Furthermore, ILC will reduce the CO2 emission from freight
vehicles by reducing the use of freight vehicles. According to the
current technologies for cleaning carbon, RMB 202 is needed to clean
each tonne of CO2 in China. Thus the costs for clean CO2 in 2015 in
the ILC and BAU scenarios can be calculated using Eq. (3.5) and
Eq. (3.6) as follows:
Zco2 = Zlgv + Z ldv + Z hgv + Z hdv (3.5)
C=co2 Z co2 × Pco2 (3.6)
The results are RMB 20,080 million and RMB 14,056 million, for BAU
and ILC scenarios; the difference of which gives RMB 6,024 million
which will be saved for the cost for clean CO2 in the ILC scenario. Refer
to Appendix D, Table D.2 for details.
Besides, freight vehicles will be more efficiently used in the ILC
scenario. Thus, the depreciation cost in the ILC scenario will be less than
that in the BAU scenario. According to the current market conditions for
freight vehicles, we suppose that the average market price of a light-duty
gasoline freight vehicle would be RMB 60,000 million, that of a light-
duty diesel freight vehicle, RMB 70,000 million, that of a heavy-duty
gasoline freight vehicle, RMB 100,000 million, and that of a heavy-duty
Chapter 3 Informing Sub-national Actions 157
On the basis of BAU, we assume that the no-load ratio of all vehicles
can be lowered from the present 50 per cent to 20 per cent in the ILC
scenario. Thus, the total quantity of freight vehicles in 2015 will be
62,616 (refer to Table 3.2), which is 26,835 less than the 89,451 in the
BAU scenario. Due to the lower increase of the quantity, the total fuel
consumption of freight vehicles in the ILC scenario will be less than
that in the BAU scenario, which will bring along substantial economic
benefit to the freight transport system of Guiyang in 2015. The benefit
can be calculated as follows:
TM= S × L (3.2)
=O (TM × Q) / 100 (3.3)
C o= O × Po (3.4)
If we use Eqs (3.2)–(3.4) to calculate the cost for fuel consumption in the
BAU scenario and the ILC scenario, the results are RMB 3,095 million
and RMB 2,255 million. Finding the difference between these values,
we get RMB 840 million which will be saved in the ILC scenario than
in the BAU scenario in 2015. Refer to Appendix D, Table D.1 for details.
Furthermore, ILC will reduce the CO2 emission from freight
vehicles by reducing the use of freight vehicles. According to the
current technologies for cleaning carbon, RMB 202 is needed to clean
each tonne of CO2 in China. Thus the costs for clean CO2 in 2015 in
the ILC and BAU scenarios can be calculated using Eq. (3.5) and
Eq. (3.6) as follows:
Zco2 = Zlgv + Z ldv + Z hgv + Z hdv (3.5)
C=co2 Z co2 × Pco2 (3.6)
The results are RMB 20,080 million and RMB 14,056 million, for BAU
and ILC scenarios; the difference of which gives RMB 6,024 million
which will be saved for the cost for clean CO2 in the ILC scenario. Refer
to Appendix D, Table D.2 for details.
Besides, freight vehicles will be more efficiently used in the ILC
scenario. Thus, the depreciation cost in the ILC scenario will be less than
that in the BAU scenario. According to the current market conditions for
freight vehicles, we suppose that the average market price of a light-duty
gasoline freight vehicle would be RMB 60,000 million, that of a light-
duty diesel freight vehicle, RMB 70,000 million, that of a heavy-duty
gasoline freight vehicle, RMB 100,000 million, and that of a heavy-duty
Chapter 3 Informing Sub-national Actions 157
