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2.3
Figure 3.7 Results of the Quantitative Forecast of Freight Vehicles in Guiyang
during 2012–15
vehicles, strengthening the administration of in-use vehicles, and traffic
restrictions on motor vehicles according to their licence plate numbers
in peak hours. Considering the status quo in the administration of
freight vehicles in Guiyang, the study in this chapter used the LEAP
system model to predict the number of vehicles that will be on the
roads in the period from 2010 to 2015. Our previously developed
methods of fuel economy calculation for different vehicle types and
distance travelled (Zhang et al. 2007) are used to estimate fossil fuel
consumption from 2010 to 2015. Finally, fuel consumption and the
corresponding economic benefits were estimated for the four scenarios
for the period between 2010 and 2015.
Business as Usual (BAU)
In the BAU (business as usual) scenario, it is assumed that Guiyang
would take no other measures related to the administration of motor
vehicles besides the current ones. During the period from now to 2015,
the national IV (limits and measurement methods for emissions from
light-duty vehicles; China IV) emission standards for motor vehicles
shall be implemented in accordance with relevant requirements of
the state. Considering the uncertainty in the implementation of the
national V (limits and measurement methods for emissions from light-
duty vehicles; China V) emission standards, all the motor vehicles
registered during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period must conform to
the national IV emission standards.
Chapter 3 Informing Sub-national Actions 153
Figure 3.7 Results of the Quantitative Forecast of Freight Vehicles in Guiyang
during 2012–15
vehicles, strengthening the administration of in-use vehicles, and traffic
restrictions on motor vehicles according to their licence plate numbers
in peak hours. Considering the status quo in the administration of
freight vehicles in Guiyang, the study in this chapter used the LEAP
system model to predict the number of vehicles that will be on the
roads in the period from 2010 to 2015. Our previously developed
methods of fuel economy calculation for different vehicle types and
distance travelled (Zhang et al. 2007) are used to estimate fossil fuel
consumption from 2010 to 2015. Finally, fuel consumption and the
corresponding economic benefits were estimated for the four scenarios
for the period between 2010 and 2015.
Business as Usual (BAU)
In the BAU (business as usual) scenario, it is assumed that Guiyang
would take no other measures related to the administration of motor
vehicles besides the current ones. During the period from now to 2015,
the national IV (limits and measurement methods for emissions from
light-duty vehicles; China IV) emission standards for motor vehicles
shall be implemented in accordance with relevant requirements of
the state. Considering the uncertainty in the implementation of the
national V (limits and measurement methods for emissions from light-
duty vehicles; China V) emission standards, all the motor vehicles
registered during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period must conform to
the national IV emission standards.
Chapter 3 Informing Sub-national Actions 153
