Power Demand Assessment
Work Package 1
Objective
The Work Package aims to obtain holistic knowledge about energy demand pattern and provide information to supply scenario for synchronization of overall energy demand and supply across the country. Apart from the analysis of past data on electricity demand, forecasting of demand at regional and national levels, for different groups of consumers, will be undertaken using insights from load research and other macro-economic parameters.
Main Activities
Analyse the load profiles of different consumer categories
The level and pattern of electricity consumption/demand varies across consumer categories (primarily industrial, residential, commercial, and agricultural) and within same categories (e.g., variation across different industries or variation across households across different geographic regions). The nature and level of consumption pattern is also expected to change over time in response to socio-economic as well as technology and policy-related changes across different consumer groups. This activity, therefore, focussed on examining the nature of consumption/demand across consumer groups and over a period of time for proper load profiling.
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Interactions with DISCOMs, Bureau of Energy Efficiency, Energy Efficiency Services Ltd, regulatory commissions, state-designated agencies, and other important stakeholders
Stakeholder interactions were carried out for proper understanding of the past, present, and future behavioural pattern of each consumer group and their sensitivity/response to policy changes. These interactions supported the validations of the findings and also strengthened the assessments and modelling results with on-ground data and understanding.
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Studying demand patterns across different geographical regions and seasons
The pattern of consumption for the same group of consumers varies across geographical regions and over seasons. Thus, to get a holistic picture of the demand pattern, analysis across regions and seasonal as well as hourly (time of the day) load variation is significantly important, besides the consumer group-wise analysis. Accordingly, this activity involved measurement and analysis of daily peak and off-peak as well as seasonal peak and off-peak data for strategizing demand-supply synchronization.
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Forecasting of demand
Based on past trends, different socio-economic and environmental variables and assumptions on their future behaviour and past data on electricity demand, forecasting was carried out for different regions and consumer categories. Reliable forecasts are crucial for future planning in the power sector, and the exercise therefore conducted a deep-dive of various end-uses to understand the variations in energy requirements across consumer categories over time.
Norwegian Partner: Institute for Energy Technology (IFE)
Achievements
The focus of the studies was to undertake a detailed end-use assessment of energy (electricity in particular) demand in India, integrate disaggregated demands with regional supply to explore low carbon growth for India and identify the role of information and market based instruments to promote energy efficient appliances in the residential sector. A systematic demand forecasting is necessary for efficient utilization of supply. The study resulted in a better understanding of regional and consumer category-wise power demand and its forecast at national and regional level. The study was appreciated by several discoms. It was also complemented with the development of the framework of the pilot model that incorporates sectoral and regional variation in energy demand and load patterns, along with regionally disaggregated availability of energy resources. The study can be replicated at both utility or regional level (other than national level already done under this study).
Publications
End-use power demand estimation in Residential sector: Regional Variation in India Publication awaited
Events
Webinar on “Behavioural Dimensions in Indian Power sector”
Date: 24 September 2020
The webinar focused on three inter-linked research studies undertaken by TERI and supported by Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The focus of the studies was on undertaking a detailed end-use assessment of energy (electricity in particular) demand in India, integrate disaggregated demands with regional supply to explore low carbon growth for India and identify the role of information and market based instruments to promote energy efficient appliances in the residential sector.
Contact
Mr Saswata Chaudhury,Senior Fellow, TERI
saswatac@teri.res.in