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Vulnerability is understood as a function of three components—exposure,
sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (Box 1) – which are in turn influenced
by a range of biophysical and socio-economic factors. The vulnerability
profiles are based on the assumption that exposure to climate change will
influence sensitivity – either positively or negatively –
and that Indian farmers will respond to these changes provided that they
have the capacity to adapt. Vulnerability is thus seen as a composite
of adaptive capacity and climate sensitivity, with sensitivity changing
to reflect climate change exposure according to results from general circulation
models.
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_Definitions
of sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and _vulnerability:
_from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change |
Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected,
either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli.
Climate-related stimuli encompass all the elements of climate
change, including mean climate characteristics, climate variability,
and frequency and magnitude of extremes. The effect may be direct
(e.g. a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean,
range, or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g. damages
caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due
to sea-level rise).
Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system
to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and
extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of
opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.
Vulnerability is the degree to which a system
is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of
climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability
is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate
change and variation to which a system is exposed as well as the
system’s sensitivity and adaptive capacity
Source IPCC
(2001) |
A series of maps have been constructed using
a GIS (geographic information system), taking the district as a spatial
unit of analysis (Figure 1). For each component of vulnerability, a number
of indicators were compiled, normalized, scaled, weighted, and mapped.
| Figure 1 Elements
of vulnerability profiles |
Adaptive capacity
Adaptive capacity for agriculture is considered
to be an outcome of biophysical, socio-economic, and technological factors.
 Biophysical factors that
influence agricultural production include soil conditions and groundwater
availability.
The social factors that
influence adaptive capacity comprise indicators representing the percentage
of district workers employed in agriculture, the percentage of landless
labourers in the agricultural workforce, human capital (as represented
by literacy levels), gender discrimination (as measured by excess girl
child mortality), and child mortality and fertility (as indicated by female
literacy rates).
Technological factors
that influence adaptive capacity include irrigation coverage and infrastructure.
The indices representing biophysical, social,
and technological vulnerability were averaged (i.e. equally weighted)
to produce a final index of adaptive capacity. The data sources used to
compile these indices include the 1991 Census of India; the Ministry of
Agriculture and Ministry of Fertilizers, Government of India; the Central
Groundwater Board; and the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
Climate change vulnerability
The adaptive capacity index was included in a more comprehensive climate
change vulnerability profile, which included a climate sensitivity index
as defined by dryness and monsoon dependency and based on a 0.5° x
0.5° gridded dataset for 1961–90 developed by the Climatic Research
Unit of the University of East Anglia, UK . The sensitivity index was
recalculated using the output from the HadRM2 downscaled general circulation
model .
Globalization vulnerability
The globalization vulnerability profile for Indian agriculture combines
the adaptive capacity index with an index of import sensitivity to trade
liberalization measures. Import sensitivity was calculated as the productivity
of a representative set of import-sensitive crops, weighted by the share
of production of each crop in the total area of production of the import-sensitive
crops, combined with a measure of the distance of a district to the closest
international port.
Double exposure
The two climate change and globalization vulnerability profiles were then
superimposed to identify districts that are ‘double exposed’
to both processes. The resulting map (Figure 2) displays the regions of
India that are categorized as having high or highest vulnerability to
both processes. In other words, these areas are likely to experience negative
impacts of both climate change and economic globalization. The map indicates
that districts in western Rajasthan, southern Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh,
Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, northern Andhra Pradesh, and southern
Bihar are considered double exposed . It is these areas where policy changes
and other interventions may be needed the most to help farmers negotiate
climate change in the context of economic globalization.
| Figure 2 Climate change
and globalization vulnerability profiles |
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