This section presents preliminary observations from the case studies,
which feed into ongoing policy analysis by the project partners.
The case studies offered a valuable complement
to the macro profile by revealing insights about the determinants of vulnerability
at the individual or community levels. Numerous physical and socio-economic
factors come into play in enhancing or constraining the current capacity
of farmers to cope with adverse changes. Prominent among the physical
factors are cropping patterns, crop
diversification, and shifts to drought-/salt-resistant varieties. The
most important socio-economic
factors include ownership of assets (like land, cattle, pump-sets, and
agricultural implements), access to services (like banking, health, and
education), and infrastructural support (like irrigation, markets, and
transport/communication networks).
Policies that
are designed to fortify current coping capacity also have the power
to strengthen long-term adaptive capacity. This is best exemplified
by measures such as crop insurance, seed banks, alternative (off-farm)
employment options, and enhanced access to inputs and markets. Another
set of policy-relevant insights offered by the case study approach
relates to the understanding of how certain factors change the vulnerability
of a given community or place over time.
One example is that of changes in cropping patterns: the widespread
switch to soybean in Jhalawar has immediate
economic benefits for farmers, but is sensitive to climate |
Group
discussion with farmers in Timmanahalli village |
| change1.Another
example is the strengthening of local institutions and higher education
levels, which would have positive gender and equity impacts. Finally,
case study examples such as private kisan kendras in Chitradurga or
seed banks in Raipur demonstrate that the private sector and civil
society have key roles to play in supplementing government efforts
to reduce vulnerability. |
The
next stage in the policy analysis will be to examine how India’s
participation in the WTO and the agricultural trade liberalization pressures
it faces will reinforce climate vulnerability. With possible reduction
and elimination of export subsidies and domestic support, cropping patterns
would change from protected crops like rice and wheat to profitable cash
crops. There would also be welfare connotations related to the Agreement
on Agriculture translated through income and employment effects. The policy
analysis will also consider, for example, the implications of agricultural
trade policies proposed by the US and European Union and the Government
of India at the recent WTO ministerial conference at Cancún.
Most important, this study hopes to bring
attention to the need for strengthening institutions and
better integrating policies with the
goal of building long-term adaptive capacity and resilience to climate
change.
|
Box 1 |
_Policy
developments in the Indian agriculture sector |
The National Agriculture Policy, 2000 aims to attain over the
next two decades a growth rate in excess of 4 per cent per annum
in the agriculture sector. This growth should be resource-efficient,
equitable, demand-driven, and sustainable. The Policy explicitly
recognizes that agricultural growth should cater to domestic markets
and maximise benefits from exports of agricultural products in
the face of the challenges arising from economic liberalization
and globalisation (MoA 2000).
The following developments in the
last decade also have significant potential for enhancing the
coping capacity of Indian farmers.
|
Note
1Lal, Hassan, and Dumanski
(1999) reported that yields of soybean in India would vary between -22
to 18% under different climate scenarios considering +2 °C and +4
°C change in temperature and ± 20% and ± 40% change
in precipitation. The study assumed no adaptation and included the direct
effect of carbon dioxide increase.
References
TERI. 2003
TERI Energy Data Directory and Yearbook 2002/03,
p. 211-16
New Delhi: The Energy and Resources Institute
MoA. 2003
National Agriculture Policy 2000
New Delhi: Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture
and Cooperation
Lal R, Hassan H M, and Dumanski J. 1999
Desertification control to sequester C and mitigate the greenhouse
effect
In Carbon sequestration in soils: science, monitoring and beyond,
edited by R J Rosenberg, R C Izaurralde, and E L Malone, pp. 83–107
Columbus, Ohio: Battelle Press
|
The
Rural Infrastructure Development Fund was launched in 1995/6
and the Kisan Credit Card Scheme was introduced in 1998/99
to facilitate short-term credit to farmers.