Vulnerability to climate change varies across regions, sectors, and social groups. Understanding the regional and local dimensions of vulnerability is essential to develop appropriate and targetted adaptation efforts. At the same time, such efforts must recognise that climate change impacts will not be felt in isolation, but in the context of multiple stresses. In particular, the dramatic economic and social changes associated with globalisation themselves present new risks as well as opportunities.

Climate change and globalization are two main processes of global change, and it is assumed that both have major impacts on Indian agriculture. Yet, their combined impacts are rarely studied in conjunction. In this research project, the double exposure of Indian agriculture to these two processes is analysed through a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods.

Pooling the expertise of TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), India; CICERO (Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo), Norway; and IISD (International Institute for Sustainable Development), Canada, this collaborative research project is funded by the Government of Canada through the Canadian International Development Agency and by the Government of Norway through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The project commenced in April 2001, and concluded in March 2004.

Conceptual framework

The study uses a framework based on the concept of ‘double exposure’, which relates to the dual impacts that certain regions or social groups will experience as a result of climate change and of changes brought about by economic globalization. The project identifies vulnerable areas and social groups, and assesses the nature of that vulnerability. Data is gathered at two levels. A macro-scale analysis at the district level maps a vulnerability profile for India, showing areas vulnerable to both climate change and economic changes. At the village level, case studies focus on the social and economic implications of double exposure for inland and coastal agricultural areas and identify the possible implications of some public policy measures on the adaptation responses for the different regions. This approach recognizes that the impacts of economic changes and climate change vary across space, and that there are important yet complex interactions occurring at different spatial scales.

Methodology

The first stage of the project involved the development of vulnerability profiles for Indian agriculture. Districts that are vulnerable to both climatic change and economic changes were identified. Data was gathered on social vulnerability (percentage of landless labourers in the agricultural workforce, literacy rates), infrastructure development,biophysical conditions (soil quality, groundwater availability), climate (rainfall patterns, evapotranspiration patterns), agriculture

(crops, productivity), and transportation (distance from ports). These were combined into vulnerability indices and mapped as vulnerability profiles.

 Sunflower farming in Chitradurga, Karnataka

Five case studies were then carried out in regions identified as exposed or doubly exposed, in order to study the impacts of climate variability and economic changes on lives at the village level, the strategies used by the villagers in coping with these changes, and the impacts of government policy on those coping strategies. At each site, surveys and interviews were conducted with farmers and local officials. These surveys and interviews will help to identify the policies that influence the ability of farmers to adapt to climate variability and change. The results of the surveys will be analysed and integrated with the results of the vulnerability and policy analyses in order to develop policy recommendations regarding adaptation to climate change.

The study will result in better knowledge regarding the vulnerable areas in India, an exploration of how some villages have coped with these issues, and a discussion of the impacts that public policy has had on the vulnerability in the villages studied. Approach can assist decision-makers in targeting policies aimed at poverty reduction in agricultural communities in developing countries.